IDLIB SCENARIOS: WHICH ONE IS THE MOST PAINLESS?

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Amid recent SyAAF and RuAF airstrikes at terrorists positions in Idlib Turkish president Recep Tayip Erdogan urged the sides not to hurry up an offensive actions on Idlib. On his side Erdogan offered to wait for results of his upcoming talks with Russian and Iranian presidents in Tehran on September 7. It’s expected that these negotiations will be the ground for final agreements on Idlib operation and Turkey could get guarantees on sensitive issues.

Militants’ media has already reported that Turkey has incentives to postpone the beginning of Idlib Dawn till the middle of September in order to get profit of talks with Iran and Russia. This profit includes the guarantees on Syrian conflict settlement, Kurdish issues and refugee crisis which threatens to Erdogan after the start of offensive on Idlib. Meanwhile, Turkey has sent military reinforcements to Hataya province with the aim of controlling the last issue.

Terrorists’ propaganda outlets also claim that Russia has deceived them: firstly they sent them to Idlib from all the Syrian provinces and now they want to kill them. However nobody gave bond to Hayat Tahrir al Sham. Moreover Russia, Turkey and Iran have an agreement with the terms of total elimination of HTS.

Today more people expect that Turkey will approve the offensive on Idlib but will demand the following of their terms. That’s why we see three the most expected scenarios of Idlib faith:

  1. The whole Idlib will be under Syrian government control. Turkey-backed militants will be withdrawn to Afrin and Azaz. HTS is totally eliminated.
  2. Militants will lay down their arms for fear of inevitable death and betraying them by their western sponsors. Turkey-backed militants will be withdrawn to Afrin and Azaz.
  3. Government forces take under their control Northern Latakia, Northern Hama, Jisr al Shoghur and the area of Hama-Aleppo highway. The capital of province is under pro-Turkish militants control. HTS is partly eliminated. The faith of Idlib continue to be incomprehensible till the next peace talks.

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