It is well known that one of the US main goals in Syria is establishing the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES). This strategy means creating a new sovereign area on the Syrian territory independent from Damascus authorities. Probably it is one of the most dangerous threat for Syria and whole Middle East region after terrorism. Let us analyze this critical problem.
Kurdish national issue
This region is separated from “continental” Syria by the great river of Euphrates in the West and shares its borders with Turkey and Iraq. The main ethnic groups living there are Arabs and Kurds. Last mentioned are main US allies in Syria. Their central role not only struggle against ISIS but also forming AANES.
Kurds is one of the largest divided nation in the world. Actually Kurdish people inhabit Syria, Iraq, Iran and Turkey. Their history is a never-ending separatist fight for autonomy or even establishment of their own country.
US actively supports them, trains and supplies their troops in Syria also known as Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). It is obvious that Kurds political movements and combat units are the most motivated power that is able to divide Syrian territory. That is why Washington bets on SDF in establishing AANES. This new formation will initiate collapse of the Syria that we know today. Now we should examine main threats of the Autonomous Administration hypothetical appearance.
Kurdish autonomous district building and its further recognition by the USA and international institutions will set a dangerous separatist precedent in the region and bring significant threats for the Syrian, Turkish and Iraq territorial integrity. Newly formed area will become a powerful gravity point for other Kurdish lands.
Every Kurdish success in the establishing autonomous area causes extremely nervous reaction of the Turkish government. That is why Turkish troops will begin the large-scale military operation next day after US withdrawal from the Kurdish lands as we could see in Afrin.
Social, cultural and economic threats
Young state-like autonomous district will divide Syrian families and informal groups and set additional obstacles for cooperation between them. It is obvious that this process will lead to production chains disruption and trade degradation. As a result it will slow down the reconstruction of the both Syrian and Kurdish societies.
Another significant detail is that most of the oil fields are concentrated in the North and East Syria. It means that Kurds’ self separation will strengthen fuel crisis in West Syria that can cause a humanitarian catastrophe.
It is also possible that Kurds on gaining independence will probably practice far-right ideology in their national building policy. It can cause a discrimination against Arabs and other minorities and even ethnic cleansing.
Hence, US policy in establishing the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria is a very risky and dangerous strategy. It threatens political dialogue between all Syrian ethnic groups, can worsen humanitarian situation and cause new wave of the violence escalation. We should keep in mind, that AANES initiative is aimed to divide Syria and continue this bloodbath.